Last modified: 1-1-2010
©2006-2014 Bill Conerly
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Resources for Readers of

Businomics™: From the Headlines to Your Bottom Line--How to Profit in Any Economic Cycle

DATA | EARLY WARNING SYSTEM | VULNERABILITY TO RECESSION | TOOLS

DATA

Global

CIA World Factbook
IMF World Economic Outlook
Economist Intelligence Unit

National

Aggregate
http://www.bea.gov/national/index.htm (Bureau of Economic Analysis)

Banking
Bank Deposits and Loans: Federal Reserve System
Bank Financial Statements: FDIC
Mortgage & Asset-Backed Securities: Asset-Backed Alert

Consumer
Retail Sales (Census Bureau)
Personal Income and Consumer Spending (Bureau of Economic Analysis)
Consumer Confidence (The Conference Board)
New Vehicle Sales (Motor Intelligence)

Business Capital Spending
Capital Spending (Census Bureau)
Construction (Census Bureau)
Dodge Construction Data (a McGraw-Hill company)

Residential Construction
New Residential Construction (Census Bureau)

Inventory Changes
Manufacturing & Trade Inventories and Sales (Census Bureau)

Government Spending
Federal Budget (Office of Management and Budget)
State and Local Government Finances (Census Bureau)
State and Local Government Finances (Rockefeller Institute)

Foreign Trade
Foreign Trade Statistics (Census Bureau)

Employment
Employment & Unemployment (Bureau of Labor Statistics)

Financial Data
Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and more (Federal Reserve Board)

Inflation
Consumer & Producer Prices, Wages (Bureau of Labor Statistics)

Industry
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization (Federal Reserve Board)
Purchasing Managers Survey (Institute for Supply Management)

Population
Population Estimates (Census Bureau)

Compilations
Economic Data: Fred (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, but includes U.S. data)
Economagic (subscription for copying ability; worth it)
Resources for Economists on the Internet (American Economics Associaton; where the professionals look for data)

Consensus Forecasts
Blue Chip Economic Indicators published monthly by Aspen Publishers, is the best-known forecast compiler.
Business Week annually compiles a large number of forecasts twice a year, typically in their first issue of the year and in July.
Consensus Economics publishes monthly consensus forecasts for the U.S. and other countries.
Survey of Professional Forecasters published quarterly by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
The Wall Street Journal compiles a large number of forecasts twice a year, typically in the first issue of the year, and the first issue of July. Regular updates are available to subscribers on the Journal’s web page.

Sector Tables
NAICS (North American Industrial Classification System) (Census Bureau)
See also the GDP accounts at www.bea.gov

Regional

Employment & Unemployment (Bureau of Labor Statistics)
List of State Labor Market Information sources (Bureau of Labor Statistics)
GDP by State, Personal Income (Bureau of Economic Analysis)
Building Permits (Census Bureau)
House Prices (Federal Housing Finance Agency)
Population (Census Bureau); to get counties or metro areas, mouse over the box labeled "Estimates Data")
Similarity Indexes: to get the raw data, go to: http://www.bea.gov/regional/reis/. Step 1, select CA06. Step 2, Select table CA06N NAICS. Download data for the state or metropolitan area of interest, and also download United States data. This data can be downloaded into a spreadsheet. Then follow the directions in Businomics™.

EARLY WARNING SYSTEM

Example Early Warning System

VULNERABILITY TO RECESSION

Case Study Case Study

Bill's assessment of consumer sectors Bill's assessment of consumer sectors

Bill's assessment of manufacturing sectors Bill's assessment of manufacturing sectors

TOOLS

Seasonal Adjustment
X 12 Arima program (Census Bureau; a great program, but not terribly easy to use.)
How to Use X12A How to Use X12A, my notes on using the program.

Excel
Excel Tools for Manipulating Data Bill's assessment of manufacturing sectors, my notes on a couple of Excel issues. (This file links to two other files: Table2Column.xls Bill's assessment of manufacturing sectors and Table2ColumnQtr.xls Bill's assessment of manufacturing sectors.


DATA | EARLY WARNING SYSTEM | VULNERABILITY TO RECESSION | TOOLS


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